The Global Forum website tries to keep track of the ever changing landscape of trade analysis, measurement of trade and trade statistics. The site keeps a database of links to over 150 relevant publications, reports, articles and speeches.
Trade, like every other aspect of the economy, has been deeply affected by the global recession that started to emerge in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. As this book goes to press, we are projecting a decline in world trade for the first time since 1982. Trade is not at the origin of the crisis, but since it binds economies closely together, it helps to spread developments from one country to another – the negative developments as well as the positive…
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The crisis of confidence that was triggered by the bursting of the real-estate bubble in the United States in 2007 and reached its height with the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 spread rapidly from the financial system to the real economy, leading to a broadly based fall in output and a collapse of world trade. In 2009 world GDP declined by 0.6 per cent,1 with a larger contraction in the first six months and a slight recovery in the third and fourth quarters...
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A Handbook on the Future of Economic Policy in the Developing World
Otaviano Canuto
Marcelo Giugale
2010
The global financial crisis of 2008–09 changed not only the global economic order, but also the way we think about that order. Principles and practices that were once accepted wisdom are now in doubt or discredited. New and fundamental questions have opened. And the search for answers has barely begun. For the countries of the developing world, this conceptual uncertainty is particularly uncomfortable—through a combination of good policies and good luck, they had begun to achieve real progress. Will all that now be derailed? What does the new horizon hold for them?...
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The fate of large firms helps explain economic volatility
The Economist
2013
Because economies are built of millions of firms and trading relationships, individual companies and export channels should not matter. Yet aggregate shocks do not explain volatility very well. Common shocks (to whole countries or global industries) explain only 45% of the variations. The data show that the picture of trade as millions of links is inaccurate; in fact, flows are extremely concentrated. A widely held view is that trade lowers volatility: exporting to more markets means greater diversification. But more foreign trade exposes economies more to the fortunes of large firms, since they trade disproportionately.
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This review traces the key issues relating to the global economy and developmaent strategies that have been addressed in UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Reports (TDRs) over the past three decades. It also intends to show how ideas, opinions and proposals expressed in the TDR, and the analytical approaches used, differed from those of proponents of “the mainstream” and how they evolved in response to new challenges arising from developments in the world economy...
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Post-crisis policy challenges in the world economy
UNCTAD
2011
Economic integration and interdependence in the world today have reached an unprecedented level. As a result, the globalized economy cannot function for the benefit of all without international solidarity and cooperation. This was highlighted by the global financial and economic crisis that followed the collapse of big financial institutions, and it has underlined the need for developing approaches to new forms of global collaboration ...
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The global upturn from what is considered the worst economic and financial crisis since the 1930s remains fragile, and a premature exit from demand-stimulating macroeconomic policies aimed at fiscal consolidation could stall the recovery. A continuation of the expansionary fiscal stance is necessary to prevent a deflationary spiral and a further worsening of the employment situation…
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The road to recovery from the Great Recession is proving to be long, winding and rocky
DESA
UNCTAD
UNECLAC
UNESCWA
2011
The road to recovery from the Great Recession is proving to be long, winding and rocky. After a year of fragile and uneven recovery, growth of the world economy is now decelerating on a broad front, presaging weaker global growth in the outlook. Weaknesses in major developed economies continue to drag the global recovery and pose risks for world economic stability in the coming years. There will be no quick fix for the problems these economies are still facing in the aftermath of the financial crisis…
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The world is on the brink of another major downturn
DESA
UNCTAD
UNECA
UNESCAP
2012
The world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn. Output growth has already slowed considerably during 2011 and anaemic growth is expected during 2012 and 2013. The problems stalking the global economy are multiple and interconnected. The most pressing challenges lie in addressing the continued jobs crisis and declining prospects for economic growth, especially in the developed countries. As unemployment remains high, at nearly 9 per cent, and incomes stagnate, the recovery is stalling in the short run owing to the lack of aggregate demand...
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